Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Millersville MD. |
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Forecast Discussion: |
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000 FXUS61 KLWX 052002 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 302 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EARLIER RA/SN SHOWERS HAVE DISAPPATED AS TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP GRADIENT BEHIND AXIS HAS BROUGHT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN MD AND NORTHERN VA BUT WITH THE ONSET OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE AXIS CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED IN PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MD BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. TEMPS IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUNSHINE HAVE ROSE A FEW DEGREES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. AREAS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING 40 DUE TO STEADY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH CLOUDS WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND DUE TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE. MINOR RIDGING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO SW ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX APPROACHES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT...REMNANT UPR LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUTOFF OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS NOW PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LWX CWA BY THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. BEST CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINS TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN /ACCORDING TO GFS FCST SNDGS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR COLDER SPOTS/ FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. CLOUDS FROM SAID LOW/VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT MIN TEMPS TO THE LOW 30S INLAND...MID 30S I-95 AND EAST. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CONUS BRINGS NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE START OF TUESDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MILD DAY WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW...MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S. CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT LIMIT MIN TEMPS AGAIN TO LOW 30S INLAND...MID 30S I-95 AND EAST. NLY FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPR TROUGH CROSSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXCEPT ALL RAIN I-95 AND EAST...ADDED SOME ALL SNOW FOR HIGHLANDS/RIDGELINES WHERE TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE PROGS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES /MAX MID TO UPR 40S...MINS AROUND 30F/. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THREAT OF PCPN HAS ENDED ACRS THE TERMINALS. CIGS HV LIFTED TO VFR. CLRG MAKING ITS WAY SWD FM PA. FOCUSED ON 19-22Z TIMEFRAME N TO S FOR CLRG LCLLY. HIPRES BLDG TNGT AND MVG OFFSHORE TMRW. THEREFORE... ONLY ELEMENT OF MARGINAL INTEREST WL BE WNDS...WHICH WL BE NLY TAFTN...BCMG LGT AND VRBL TNGT...AND RTNG SWLY TMRW. HWVR...SPDS WL BE AOB 10 KT...SO ACTUAL IMPACT WL BE MINIMAL. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SOME WINTRY MIX AND MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF BALT-WASH AS AN UPR TROUGH CROSSES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT FLOW BECOMES NLY FOR TUESDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NELY FLOW AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET AS GUSTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CLOUDS PARTING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK COMING OUT OF THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE. NLY FLOW TUESDAY BECOMES NELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BAJ/HTS MARINE...BAJ/HAS |












