Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Millersville MD. |
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Forecast Discussion: |
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000 FXUS61 KLWX 100228 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 928 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF HIPRES RDG PUSHING OFFSHR...AND CI HAS BEEN SPREADING ACRS SKY. NEAREST LOPRES CNTR STILL BACK NEAR KC /MCI/...BUT BAND OF WMFNTL RA HAS BEEN EVIDENT ACRS MIDWEST-- THE ERN EXTENT OF WHICH HAS BEEN BRKG APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUPER-DRY AMS OVR MID ATLC /00Z PWATS FM RGNL RAOBS... PBZ 0.10...LWX 0.14..RNK 0.40/. 18Z NAM PICKS UP ON THIS BEST... WHILE GFS AND 15Z SREF STILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS FOR WRN/NRN SXNS. THERE IS LMTD FORCING ALOFT /H8-5/...THO F-VCTR CNVGNC AND MSTR DISPLACED FM EACH OTR. HWVR... DO THINK THAT THERE/S ENUF FOR CLDS TO LWR AND A FEW SPRNKLS WL BE PSBL. BUT...GOTTA WONDER HOW MUCH OF THIS WL JUST GO TWD MSTNG AMS INSTEAD. HV TRIMMED POPS BACK TO JUST SCHC TNGT...AND REDUCED AREAL CVRG AS WELL. TEMPS AT 01Z STILL RNG FM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...MILD FOR ELY MAR. THE ADDED CLRCVR AND MSTR ADVCTN WL SHARPLY IMPEDE RADL COOLING TNGT. GOING MIN-T FCST APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE...AND ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE WMFNT...AND ZN OF PSBL PCPN...WL BE THE NEMESIS INTO WED MRNG. SAME ISSUES REMAIN...LGT QPF FALLING INTO DRY AMS. HV DECENT CONFIDENCE ON A FEW SPRNKLS...SPCLY ACRS MD...BUT HV DOUBTS IF MEASUREABLE PCPN WL FALL. CONTD TRENDS STARTED IN 1ST PD...CUTTING BACK TO SCHC POPS A LOT AND TARGETING AREAL CVRG COINCIDENT W/ WMFNT AND CLDS. THRAFTR...MDL TIME HGTS REVEAL MSTR ARND H7...WHICH GRDLY BRKS APART DURING THE AFTN. HV PULLED POPS ENTIRELY IN THIS PD /WED AFTN/. BKN CIGS XPCTD. MAXT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SUN WL BE REALIZED. HV LEFT GOING TEMP FCST IN PLACE...ALLWG MID SHIFT TO REVIEW 00Z DATA AND MAKE THE CALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRES WL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MS VLLY WED NGT THRU FRI. INITIAL BEST CHCS FOR RA LOOK TO BE LATE THU/THU NGT AS LOW LVL WINDS TURN TO THE SE AND TAP INTO ATLC MOISTURE. HV UPPED POPS TO CAT FOR THU NGT W/ QPF ARND 1/2 INCH. TEMPS TO RANGE FM L40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 IN THE CITIES. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CAUSING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY SUNDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW CAUSING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS UP A MAJOR CONCERN - THAT OF FLD PTNL AS ALL THE RMNG SNOW IN THE HIGHLANDS BEGINS TO MELT/RELEASE INTO THE N BRNCH OF THE PTMC. TUESDAY`S SNOW WATER EQUIV GRAPHIC FM NOHRSC STILL SHOWING 5-10" LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOCKED IN THAT SNOWPACK. THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO CAUSE POSSIBLE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY FLOW OUT OF THERE BANKS. THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE FROM RIVER FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS SETUP...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THRU ERY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AT NIGHT SAT THRU MON. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CLDS SPREADING ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WMFNT WL CROSS OVNGT. ATTM...HV KEPT VCSH AND CIGS ARND BKN050 COINCIDENT W/ FNT. AM HAVING DOUBTS WHETHER ANY RA WL FALL. IF IT DOES...IT/LL BE JUST SPRNKLS. XPCT NO RESTRICTIONS ASSOC W/ THIS ACTVTY. MID DECK CLDS AND S/SE WNDS BLO 10 KT WED ONCE WMFNT PASSES. DC- BALT TERMINALS WL BE CLSR TO ESE...WHILE CHO-MRB WL BE MORE SLY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES WED NGT AND LASTING RIGHT THRU THE WKND. SUB VFR W/ PDS OF RAIN THU THRU SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SLY FLOW ON THE WATERS THRU WED...AOB 10 KT. NRN BAY NOT QUITE THERE YET...BUT IT WL BE SOON. THERE IS PTNL FOR SCA WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI. THE THING THAT COULD WORK AGAINST SERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN TO WATER LVL IS THE L40 DEGREE WATER IN THE BAY/PTMC. BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW A NEAR SFC INVERSION AT NHK W/ XCPTN OF A BRIEF PD DURG AFTN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE CSTL FLD PTNL THIS WKND. THERE ARE MULTIPLE FACTORS INVOLVED - 1) WATER FLOWING DOWNSTREAM IN THE PTMC 2) MOON PHASE IS GROWING CLOS TO A NEW MOON SUNDAY 3) LOW PRES MOVING OVER THE RGN THIS WKND AND 4) LOW LVL SERLY FLOW FRI-SAT WL HINDER DRAINAGE IN THE PTMC/CHES BAY. THIS TOO IS TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF SPL PRODUCT OTHER THAN TO MENTION IN THE HWO. LATER SHIFTS WL NEED TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT FURTHER. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...LASORSA/WOODY! AVIATION...HTS/WOODY! MARINE...HTS/WOODY! TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WOODY! |
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