From the Storm Prediction Center…
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF THE ERN W VA PNHDL…S CNTRL PA…CNTRL MD AND NRN VA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND MAY IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE… NORTHWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE…AND HARRISBURG/LANCASTER…DURING THE 18-21Z (2-5PM EDT) TIME FRAME. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL…BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE NEAR THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS…NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT….AS A RESULT…STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE…FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
