2/3/10: Outlook – HPC: "…MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/SAT…"

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center posted this today:

A VERY HEAVY EVEN CRIPPLING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SRN NJ/SOUTHEAST PA/DE/MD/NRN VA/ERN PANHANDLE DAY 3 FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NRN STREAM JET WITH A BRIEF COUPLING OF THE SRN STREAM LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES. OVERALL MODEL QPF CONSENSUS AVERAGE 1-1.5 LIQUID EQUIVILENT OVER AREAS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW INDICATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE. GALE FORCE ONSHORE WINDS CONT ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST SAT AS A DEEPENING SFC LOW EXITS THE NC SOUNDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE VA CAPES. THERE ARE SIMILARITIES TO THE FEB 11-12 1983 STORM WITH A MORE SUPRESSED NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN AND AS FAR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

Here are their forecast maps for potential snowfall…
Day 3 Probability of at Least 4 inches:
Day 3 Probability of at Least 8 inches:
Day 3 Probability of at Least 12 inches: